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© offered by way of The Motley idiot IBM (IBM) Q3 2021 profits name Transcript

IBM (NYSE: IBM)

Q3 2021 earnings name

Oct 20, 2021, 5:00 p.m. ET

Contents:

prepared Remarks

Questions and answers

name contributors

organized Remarks:

Operator

Welcome, and thank you for standing by using. at this time, all members are in a pay attention-only mode. cutting-edge conference is being recorded. in case you have any objections, you may additionally disconnect at present.

Now i will be able to turn the meeting over to Ms. Patricia Murphy with IBM. Ma'am, you can also begin.

Patricia Murphy -- vp of Investor relations

thank you. here is Patricia Murphy, and i'd like to welcome you to IBM's third-quarter 2021 revenue presentation. i am right here with Arvind Krishna, IBM's chairman and chief govt officer; and Jim Kavanaugh, IBM's senior vp and chief financial officer. [Inaudible] organized remarks on the IBM investor website inside a few hours, and a replay should be accessible by this time the following day.

i'll remind you the separation of Kyndryl is anticipated to be achieved at the beginning of December. And due to this fact, their third-quarter efficiency displays IBM, together with the managed infrastructure services business and their pre-separation phase structure. feedback made in this presentation can be considered forward-searching below the private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements involve factors that could trigger their real outcomes to vary materially.

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this article is a transcript of this convention call produced for The Motley fool. while they try for their foolish superior, there could be blunders, omissions, or inaccuracies in this transcript. as with every their articles, The Motley idiot doesn't count on any responsibility for your use of this content, and they strongly inspire you to do your own analysis, including paying attention to the name yourself and analyzing the business's SEC filings. Please see their terms and prerequisites for extra details, including their obligatory Capitalized Disclaimers of liability.

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guidance about these components is included in the enterprise's SEC filings. The presentation additionally comprises non-GAAP measures to supply additional information to buyers. for instance, they existing income and signings boom in steady foreign money. furthermore, to deliver a view consistent with their go-ahead business, we'll focus on constant-currency growth, adjusting for the divested groups for the impacted lines of complete earnings, cloud, and their geographic efficiency.

We provided reconciliation charts for these and other non-GAAP measures at the end of the presentation, 8-okay submitted to the SEC. With that, i may turn the name over to Arvind.

Arvind Krishna -- Chairman and Chief executive Officer

thanks, Patricia, and thanks to all of you for becoming a member of us these days to discuss their third-quarter performance. At their latest investor briefing, they laid out their hybrid cloud and AI strategy and their approach to providing robust free cash circulation and sustainable mid-single-digit profits growth starting in 2022. For the final yr and a half, they have now been taking moves and investing to execute their strategy. This quarter, they suggested modest revenue boom and delivered strong free money movement, generated over $11 billion of adjusted free money circulate over the ultimate yr.

We additionally made tangible growth in their key growth areas of software and consulting. With that, i'll acknowledge that in different areas of the business, they fell wanting their expectation; techniques right through the conclusion of the z15 cycle and international technology capabilities strains pausing ahead of the public filing of the kind 10 and separation of Kyndryl. they have made additional development in the Kyndryl separation within the remaining two weeks and announced the distribution date of November 3, which is ahead of their usual schedule. we've got performed an awful lot to prepare Kyndryl for this moment.

We took structural actions to Boost the profit profile. The management group is in area. worker transfers and the mammoth majority of client contract innovations are comprehensive. They are actually even more definite that setting apart this business creates value through center of attention.

That talked about, the americans of GTS have been a part of IBM for a long time. therefore, it's with combined feelings that we're reporting on this phase for the ultimate time. And just the day before today, you heard from Martin and his management team stronger method and price proposition. The separation is only one of the various movements we're taking to focal point their enterprise on hybrid cloud and AI and increase their fiscal profile.

To provide you some colour on IBM's efficiency with the exception of Kyndryl, they delivered 2% earnings increase this quarter. That compares to 1% within the 2nd quarter and minus 1% within the first quarter. These consequences reflect the effective demand for expertise products and features that assist their purchasers Boost their digital transformation. Their utility revenue increase become led by means of red Hat, protection, automation, and Cloud Paks across their utility.

global company services, quickly to be IBM Consulting, accelerated income increase to a double-digit fee. application and consulting are their two main drivers of boom, and this was definitely true this quarter. i'll now expand on the development they made in the third quarter towards their future. As I actually have described during the past, they have a platform-centric strategy, making an attempt to meet consumers wherever they're in their journey.

The platform they now have built is open, at ease, and flexible and continues to profit traction within the industry. they now have greater than 3,500 valued clientele using their hybrid cloud platform, not handiest fuels their pink Hat income performance however also offers a solid base for the multiplier effect throughout application and services. IBM Consulting is assisting to power this platform adoption and this quarter, had over 180 new crimson Hat engagements. Their teams work alongside their consumers to co-create business products and solutions.

thus far, they have carried out greater than four,000 IBM storage engagements. within the last quarter, more customers are leveraging their platform capabilities and their advantage to liberate company price. introduced DISH is the usage of IBM software and services to assist automate their cloud-native 5G network; Cloud Pak for network Automation, which is used with AI, automation, and orchestration capabilities used by using DISH to great-tune velocity degrees or coverage areas reckoning on the needs of selected consumers. constructing on their partnership spanning half a century, they announced credit Mutuel is developing an IBM expertise and talents hub in France.

the brand new hub will support credit score Mutuel leverage AI, data, cloud, and IBM Z. also introduced a new settlement with CaixaBank, one of the vital largest banks in Europe, to enhance its digital capabilities with IBM Cloud for monetary services and the new IBM Cloud Multizone region in Spain. CaixaBank will leverage IBM Consulting trade abilities to circulation to a hybrid cloud approach for modernization. This quarter, they continued to leverage their ecosystem to pressure what they described at their investor briefing as a flywheel of increase.

it's the more they develop, the extra their partners develop and vice versa. We're partnering with opt for GSIs to convey joint options to market. This quarter, Atos announced the setup of the Atos Cloud center of Excellence to support economic services purchasers with their digital transformation experience. even have persevered momentum and income growth from their partnership with trade-leading ISVs and hyperscalers.

[Inaudible], they are partnering with Adobe to assist the British pharmacy chain, Boots, radically change their e-commerce platform and carry new digital customer experiences. whereas they put money into partnerships, they additionally make investments organically and inorganically to bring innovation. They made sixteen acquisitions given that April 2020, together with BoxBoat and Bluetab in the third quarter. These will reinforce their hybrid cloud consulting skill.

in the identical method, we're organically constructing new improvements that be counted to their shoppers. i could mention a couple of new introductions beginning with their innovations in utility. within the quarter, pink Hat brought a new rearchitectured version of the pink Hat Ansible automation platform. crimson Hat also launched a brand new edition of its superior cluster administration of Kubernetes.

These two products are actually more tightly built-in, which helps power hybrid cloud automation. furthermore, the existing version of crimson Hat OpenShift became often attainable. IBM Cloud Paks run anywhere that OpenShift runs. They use normal functions such as logging, metering, monitoring, and safety and are infused with innovations and capabilities from IBM research to deliver a great deal more price than containerized code.

in this quarter, they launched Cloud Pak for safety, SaaS, in addition to new types of Cloud Pak for Integration, Cloud Pak for community Automation, and the Maximo application suite. additionally lately introduced their Environmental Intelligence utility suite. Product in keeping with their Cloud Pak for records and leveraging their weather capabilities is designed to assist corporations measure, video display, and predict environmental effects but also to aid simplify ESG reporting. As you understand, they made a commitment to be net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by means of 2030.

we can leverage this solution to notify management as they take motion to reach this intention. Their systems company, they currently launched Power10. Power10 has enjoyable hardware innovations, including a processor mainly optimized for data-intensive workloads corresponding to SAP S/4HANA. all over the quarter, they additionally introduced a Telum processor.

This 7-nanometer microprocessor is engineered to help purchasers profit insights from their statistics on the speed of the workload. at the equal time, they now have persevered to see quantum computing as a promising enviornment of chance that allows you to play out within the long term. Their teams are hard at work to circulation this interesting box ahead. buyers will have a chance to gain knowledge of greater about this inside the next month.

Let me without delay spotlight one ESG announcement they made recently. To assist offer protection to the rights and privacy of cloud customers, they have joined other fundamental corporations within the tech business, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Salesforce, and SAP, to set up the trusted cloud concepts. This initiative is in step with their long-standing focal point on have confidence and transparency. earlier than I transition to Jim, let me reiterate three messages they conveyed all through their investor briefing.

First, we're optimizing their portfolio to drive mid-single-digit revenue growth starting in 2022. second, we're increasing their center of attention and agility to more desirable serve consumers. Third, they are producing powerful free money circulate that permits their investments whereas providing beautiful shareholder returns. This quarter, they took a further step toward this future.

whereas tons remains to be performed, we're assured they can obtain their midterm aims. Jim, over to you.

Jim Kavanaugh -- Senior vice president and Chief monetary Officer

Thanks, Arvind. Over the final 12 months, they now have been very clear on the two most crucial measures of success: earnings growth and free money stream era. i may delivery with these key metrics. within the third quarter, their revenue of $17.6 billion changed into up as suggested and down modestly at regular foreign money.

aside from the content so that it will go to Kyndryl, IBM's income grew 2% with an improving vogue over the final three quarters. Their cash technology turned into up for the quarter, 12 months to this point, and trailing three hundred and sixty five days. This excludes the money charges associated with the separation of Kyndryl and the structural moves initiated on the end of remaining 12 months. their profits from a phase viewpoint, international enterprise capabilities boom accelerated to 11%, and their utility salary turned into up 2%.

These businesses will be their growth drivers into the longer term and together characterize over 70% of their put up-separation salary profile. techniques declined this quarter by way of 12%, reflecting product cycle dynamics. across their segments, IBM's cloud profits was up 11% over closing yr, and or not it's up 17%, aside from the cloud profits going to Kyndryl. this is led by international business services and Cloud and Cognitive software, that are up 27% and 28%, respectively, over that duration.

relocating on to the earnings dynamics. Pretax margin is up 10 groundwork features sequentially but down 100 foundation facets year to 12 months. As they saw the demand ambiance enhancing within the fourth quarter of closing yr, they have been expanding investments in potential, innovation, and their ecosystem, organically and thru acquisition. within the third quarter, they persisted to aggressively employ, bringing in technical skill in red Hat and tremendously knowledgeable competencies in Consulting.

We're scaling components in their garages to supply a more experiential consulting and income method. We're including client success managers to assist clients get essentially the most cost out of their IBM solution, and we're increasing investments in R&D to deliver innovations in their hybrid cloud platform, AI, and rising technologies like Quantum. The structural moves they initiated at the conclusion of closing yr are funding some of these investments. Roughly two-thirds of the reductions from these actions address stranded expenses from the separation and create fiscal flexibility to be reinvested for increase.

The different one-third tackle the international expertise capabilities income profile forward of the separation, and we're seeing improvement in the GTS gross margin. Their third-quarter operating tax price got here in about 5%, which is decrease than what they spoke of closing quarter. This become due to discrete tax merits that passed off earlier than they up to now anticipated as they prepare for the Kyndryl separation. it be important to notice that their view of the whole-year operating tax expense has not modified in view that January.

i may touch upon their free cash flow and stability sheet position. They generated $5 billion of adjusted free cash stream yr to date and $eleven.1 billion over the closing year. each exclude cash impacts of about $1.eight billion for the structural moves initiated late last year and transaction prices linked to the separation of Kyndryl. Their adjusted free money stream over the ultimate year is up about $300 million with boom in their underlying enterprise performance mitigated via a money tax headwind.

Our money balance on the conclusion of September was $8.four billion, up a little bit from June however down about $6 billion from yr-conclusion. Over the equal duration, their debt is down $7 billion. besides debt discount year to this point, we've used $three billion for acquisitions and over $four billion for shareholder returns through dividends. Their solid money technology and disciplined monetary administration offers the gas to invest in their company and pay a good looking dividend.

Turning to the segments. Cloud and Cognitive application revenue grew 2%. they have a strong habitual income base in utility. Renewal prices for subscription and support have been up again this quarter, contributing to the increase in their application deferred profits stability over the remaining year.

through company area, Cloud and records structures profits changed into up 9%, while Cognitive applications declined 1%, and Transaction Processing structures was down 9%. They currently shared plans to provide new utility income classes starting within the fourth quarter. they are able to combine their two application growth vectors, Cloud and statistics platforms and Cognitive applications, and inside that, deliver more suitable transparency into performance and tendencies through enterprise enviornment. looking throughout these growth vectors, crimson Hat, security, and automation fueled earnings growth this quarter.

red Hat earnings became up 17% on a traditionally normalized foundation and 23% all-in. Going forward, they will focus on this all-in boom given these views will converge over the next 12 months because the have an impact on of the deferred earnings impairment dissipates. pink Hat revenue boom was driven by way of double-digit growth in both infrastructure and software building and rising know-how. And they had greater than forty% boom in OpenShift ordinary earnings.

growth in automation become led by means of key options like Cloud Pak for Integration, and Cloud Pak for business Automation, as well as a robust beginning to their contemporary Instana and Turbonomic acquisition. Their data and AI profits was down modestly. They had electricity in Cloud Pak for statistics, climate, and Maximo and declines in on-premise records ops portfolio and supply chain as it wrapped on a strong third quarter last yr. protection is still a key strategic center of attention area as we're assisting customers adopt zero have confidence structure with Cloud Pak for safety and export features.

increase in safety income persisted this quarter, led via hazard management utility and services as customers reply to the evolving cybersecurity environment. within the spirit of transparency, i could provide a couple of additional metrics into their efficiency. Their annual habitual income, or ARR, across these software growth vectors grew 7%. this is an outstanding indication of the development in their hybrid cloud and AI client adoption.

And they have over $8 billion in application cloud earnings over the final year, which is up 28%. Turning to their application cost vector, transaction processing platforms. They supply flexibility to their valued clientele and how they purchase this mission-important software. Over the last 18 months, they now have viewed a alternative for opex over capex.

This continues to power perpetual licenses in want of extra consumption-like mannequin. but importantly, they once again had amazing renewal costs in their transaction processing platform application. this is a fantastic indication that consumers see lengthy-time period value in these choices. earnings for the utility phase, they elevated pre-tax margin sequentially, while they continue to put money into new innovation and their ecosystem.

moving to world company capabilities. profits boom accelerated to eleven%. Even with the effective revenue performance, their ebook-to-bill ratio changed into improved than one. Their GBS cost proposition is aligned to their consumers' priorities.

We're assisting their purchasers catch new increase alternatives and enhance operational flexibility and productiveness with hybrid cloud and AI. They leverage their incumbency, IBM technology, and strategic partnerships to modernize their functions and digitally radically change their corporations at scale. GBS revenue boom is led by using their cloud offering. GBS cloud profits now represents greater than $7 billion of income over the closing 12 months and is up 27%.

This performance displays the continued investments they are making in their pink Hat, Microsoft, and AWS practices. As Arvind stated, they introduced over one hundred eighty crimson Hat customer engagements this quarter. This contributes to complete pink Hat-connected signings of near $three.5 billion since the acquisition. inside their eleven% revenue increase, consulting became up sixteen%.

there's solid demand right here. We're leveraging their capabilities and ecosystem companions to transform their valued clientele' enterprise tactics and modernize functions according to OpenShift. global processing capabilities income become up 19%. Their choices in finance, procurement, and talent and transformation all grew at double-digit fees.

more and more, we're connecting consulting and BPO to radically change client workflows the usage of hybrid cloud and AI. ultimately, in utility administration, income increase accelerated to five%, off a previous 12 months that become impacted by means of the pandemic. growth this quarter was pushed by using management of applications in a multi-cloud environment. i may shift to GBS profit profile, where their potent earnings performance drove gross and pre-tax earnings dollar growth.

Our gross and pre-tax margins superior sequentially but have been down year to 12 months. With the market probability they see, we're making conscious choices to make investments forward of revenue. we're investing in strategic partnerships, new choices and practices, and integrating and scaling out their acquisition. As i discussed earlier, they are investing in knowledge for GBS.

within the remaining a couple of months, they have expanded their go-to-market resources and scaled their practices developed around their ecosystem companions and pink Hat. With a aggressive labor market, here's putting some drive on their labor expenses, together with better acquisition and retention charges, which isn't yet reflected in their latest pricing. They expect to catch this value in future engagements, however will take time to seem in their margin profile. So now turning to the systems phase.

earnings efficiency became down 12% driven via product cycles in IBM Z and energy, mitigated by means of growth in Storage. In IBM Z, income declined 33% in the ninth quarter of z15 availability. whereas z15 program thus far continues to exceed the powerful z14 cycle, the magnitude of that overachievement has come down a couple of features this quarter. IBM Z is a long-lasting platform given market wants for scalability, reliability, security, and greater these days, cloud-native development.

These traits, in conjunction with their more latest flexible consumption choices, additional exhibit the value of IBM Z platform within their hybrid cloud and AI strategy. Their earnings changed into down. Late in the quarter, they began the rollout of their next-technology Power10 starting with high-end system. As at all times, new vigour know-how is brought over time, and the mid-latitude and low-end Power10 methods can be available during 2022.

Storage delivered eleven% earnings boom pushed via demand from hyperscalers for their tape products and growth in entry-level, all-flash storage following their product refresh earlier this 12 months. profit in this phase. profit margin changed into down, reflecting where we're in the IBM Z and Power10 product cycles. So now let me turn to international know-how features.

salary changed into down 5%, which is a 1-point deceleration from last quarter. The 12 months-to-year trajectory of profits generated from the backlog has been enhancing over the remaining few quarters. in the first half of the yr, they also had modest advancements in client-based business volumes and challenge exercise, which contributes to in-period earnings. besides the fact that children, this quarter, customers paused on new challenge pastime as the separation became impending, resulting within the salary deceleration.

on the time they determined to separate their managed infrastructure features company, they undertook a collection of moves to increase the margin, income, and cash technology profile of the business, including a substantial can charge within the fourth quarter of 2020. The outcomes of those moves can be viewed within the margin development over the ultimate a couple of quarters. And this quarter, they once again elevated gross margin, up a hundred and twenty foundation facets. Kyndryl will take this superior profit profile into the separation.

i'll wrap up with a view of their growth 12 months so far after which talk about some of the fourth-quarter dynamics. As they enter 2021, they laid out their expectations for the yr for their two most essential measures: earnings and free cash move. They anticipated to grow profits for IBM at specific costs with underlying regular-foreign money performance better in the 2nd half than the primary. They anticipated to grow revenue for IBM, excluding Kyndryl, at consistent forex.

And they anticipated to generate $eleven billion to $12 billion of adjusted free cash move. That, of path, excludes the cash influences of the Kyndryl transaction expenses and the structural moves i might mentioned past. Now we're three quarters into the 12 months, and they just completed the remaining full quarter of IBM on a pre-separation groundwork. it's a good time to take a image in opposition t these aims.

through the first three quarters, their revenue at real charges is up 2%. Their salary growth trajectory at consistent currency has been improving during the yr. And excluding Kyndryl, their third-quarter income changed into up 2% 12 months to year, and their adjusted free cash stream over the closing 365 days is $11.1 billion. considering the fact that the starting of the yr, they have streamlined their go-to-market.

we have increased investments and closed 10 acquisitions. These movements and investments will aid power earnings increase, nonetheless it takes time to totally know the improvement. usual, their consequences over the first three quarters of 2021 reflect development we've got been making towards their midterm mannequin. throughout the fourth quarter, they can complete the separation of Kyndryl, which is not off course for November 3.

The fourth quarter, for this reason, is an important milestone as they transition to the future IBM. Now let me deliver some color on three areas for the fourth quarter: first, the income trajectory of the brand new segments; 2d, i could comment on their tax fee; and third, the impact of the separation of Kyndryl to IBM's consolidated outcomes for November and December on an working foundation. i'll delivery with the salary trajectory of their segments as they document them in the fourth quarter. As at all times, i may talk about it on a constant-foreign money foundation.

however i may remind you, the U.S. greenback continues to provide a boost to and can be a 1- to 2-point headwind to boom in line with existing spot fees. To provide a far better view of developments, i could focus on the growth fees earlier than the income from incremental revenue to Kyndryl. They see persevered momentum in their growth vectors in utility and Consulting.

We expect their utility salary increase cost to enrich versus the third quarter. And in IBM Consulting, they once more predict double-digit income increase. In infrastructure, given product cycle dynamics, they are expecting pretty constant performance with the third quarter, which become a excessive single-digit decline. 2nd, tax.

i mentioned the timing of discrete tax benefits befell earlier than they prior to now expected as they organized for the Kyndryl separation. They nevertheless expect their full-yr tax price to be in the low young adults latitude, in response to what they indicated back in January. it's their all-in price, including discrete tax gadgets, and applies a fourth-quarter tax expense within the excessive teenagers. after which ultimately, IBM's fourth-quarter consolidated results will mirror the Kyndryl separation.

i'll body the revenue and revenue per share implications in accordance with the final couple of years. Kyndryl traditionally represented just beneath $5 billion of revenue in the fourth quarter, with about $3.5 billion of that in November and December. on the identical time, they estimate they are going to get about $350 million from incremental earnings in those two months from the brand new commercial relationship. The internet affect to IBM consolidated effects is a discount of about $3 billion of income for November and December because of the separation.

And for these two months, they estimate an have an impact on of $0.20 to $0.25 of salary per share including the new industrial relationship. at the time of separation, Kyndryl might be introduced in discontinued operation, with the stability of IBM in carrying on with operation. they are able to provide a historical restatement of carrying on with operations earlier than the conclusion of the year. they are on the edge of the long run IBM.

Video: IBM misses Q3 income estimates (Yahoo! Finance)

We expect to exit the fourth quarter ready to deliver their mid-term mannequin, a mid-single-digit revenue growth, and cumulative free cash stream of $35 billion in 2022 to 2024. So with that, they are going to be chuffed to take your questions. i could flip it again to Patricia.

Patricia Murphy -- vice president of Investor relations

thanks, Jim. earlier than they start the mp;A, i'd want to point out just a few gadgets. First, a couple of references had been made these days to IBM's new segment constitution, which may be helpful automatically previous to the Kyndryl separation. They provided information on the new segment scope and naming in a piece of writing posted to their investor site at first of this month.

2d, supplemental information is equipped on the end of the presentation, [Inaudible] comprises the schedule of the availability of recast economic information for IBM put up separation. and finally, as all the time, I ask you to chorus from multi-half questions. Operator, let's please open it up for questions.

Questions & answers:

Operator

thanks. at the present, they are able to begin the query-and-reply session of the conference. [Operator instructions] Their first question comes from Wamsi Mohan with bank of america. Sir, your line is open.

Wamsi Mohan -- financial institution of the usa Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

sure, thanks. Arvind, there seems to be lots of concerns across the real separation when it comes to abilities disruptions. You stated on this call that you just noticed some hesitation or pause in spending. Do you think -- given the changes that you have put in location also with sales comp, do you consider comfy concerning the trajectory of the business once you get past this threshold of near-term disruption that you simply highlighted? And if I may, Jim, you noted about $2.5 billion one-time bump from Kyndryl in 2022.

are you able to might be calibrate that quantity for 2021 as neatly? that might be advantageous. thank you.

Arvind Krishna -- Chairman and Chief executive Officer

whats up, Wamsi, thanks for the query. look, i might like to be very clear. I feel that any -- and that i would no longer use the be aware disruption, Wamsi. i might use the observe that there could be a mild pause, which is the phrases that I used within the -- my organized remarks.

I believe there may be a slight pause, and it will be the end of third quarter, might be the beginning of fourth quarter. And they see that fall generally in hardware and in Kyndryl itself. by the way, just to add some colour, why do you see that? there has been loads of hardware that in fact does circulation through Kyndryl. and many individuals, many of their customers believe of that as being an alternate method that they have procured infrastructure during the past.

So, or not it's no longer a surprise given the measurement of the relationship with all of these consumers that they see a pause in some of them. by the way, I think that this is the comprehensive nature of it. after I examine their pipeline, I look at their sales compensation, I examine their govt compensation, i am fully assured that this should be well at the back of us by using the beginning of '22, meaning by using January, neatly at the back of us. And as they also get into a new product cycle on one of the crucial hardware in the first half of '22, I feel that'll put it completely in the back of us.

And so, my view is that they hold enterprise to their '22 and forward projections. And this has really acquired no lengthy-term or systemic considerations that I see, both within the numbers, within the pipelines, and within the precise habits of customers and their people.

Jim Kavanaugh -- Senior vp and Chief financial Officer

Thanks, Wamsi. To your 2d question, be aware returned at -- on October four, at their Investor Day, they talked about the amazing strategic relationship between IBM and Kyndryl going forward, of which I suppose, at that time, they shared about $2.5 billion of annualized company predominantly structured around their high-price, mission-crucial ordinary profits of software and additionally some in their infrastructure segment round hardware purchases and around their infrastructure help. That become a full-year annualized view. in case you look at fourth quarter, we'll have two months' worth of that in 2021.

And they estimate that it is about $350 million to $400 million average. So in case you go back to what I said on October 4, the 2022 in comparison to 2021, 12 months versus two months is, provide or take, about a little bit over $2 billion. And that translates into the 3 aspects of incremental growth one time above their mid-single-digit mannequin in midterm.

Patricia Murphy -- vice chairman of Investor members of the family

Thanks, Wamsi. Let's go to the next query.

Operator

Our next query comes from Toni Sacconaghi with Bernstein. Your line is open.

Toni Sacconaghi -- AB Bernstein -- Analyst

yes. thanks. and i suppose, Arvind, you touched on this within the first question, however possibly let me ask it a little extra without delay. So, this quarter, IBM grew at 1.9% for RemainCo versus the assessment of steady forex at minus 3.5%.

The comparisons get about 2 or 3 aspects greater tricky looking into next year, and you've got to speed up your increase rate to get to mid-single-digit increase by using 2 or 3 elements. So effectively, adjusting for compares, the boom fee has to Boost about 5 percentage features relative to what you probably did this quarter to hit that mid-single-digit goal. beyond a product cycle in mainframe and UNIX, given you observed variety of taking time for investments to repay, what is going to seemingly pretty unexpectedly trade the growth profile adjusting for comps by way of probably 4, 5, or 6 features over the following few quarters? and the way long do you continue to expect to invest, i.e., have drive on working margins, chiefly in software and GBS going ahead? thank you.

Arvind Krishna -- Chairman and Chief govt Officer

ok. Thanks, Toni. i'll take the first a part of that, after which i may look at Jim for the second a part of the question. So, Toni, there's three components of it.

First, let me well known, yes, their boom charges should increase, so no question about it. They are not asserting we're achieved. The three facets with the intention to contribute to the growth fee -- and that i consider loads of what you have been pointing to changed into towards the utility boom price. i may say it comes from three issues.

One, we're seeing advancements in their organic, meaning the utility they already have. They continue to see that. They predict that in order to increase the utility growth quotes by using just a few features. I won't truly say the upper band because I don't predict that the three aspects i mentioned, all of them, will all return at their higher band.

So, as an instance, 1 or 2 elements from the organic increase fee. Two, they will continue to make acquisitions. So not simplest do those they have made maintain contributing because they are turning out to be neatly into double-digit growth costs or the brand new ones they make will additionally make a contribution to that. suppose of that to be in the same range.

The third one, as we're making loads of changes in their revenue compensation, in addition to within the makeup of their income team, they speak about the garages. They focus on client success managers leading to greater experiential and more technical selling. They consider that'll drive better deployment and hence, faster purchases in that phase. And so, all of those together will make a contribution towards a an awful lot-more advantageous growth rate in the software segment up to the mid-single digit as I believe you're mentioning in a few of your math.

i am not going to debate is it 3%, four%, or 5%. happy to do that when they now have a little bit more time. and that i'll flow it over to Jim for the 2d part of the query.

Jim Kavanaugh -- Senior vice chairman and Chief financial Officer

To that aspect, I can't resist but go into the numbers. So, let's simply -- Toni, exceptional question. thanks very a lot. Let's talk about this quarter.

once more, IBM ex-Kyndryl delivered about 2% boom. incidentally, it really is an accelerating fashion as they spoke of within the organized remarks from about flat during the first half to now growing 2%. sure, off a simpler examine, they well known that. but let's take a glance on the revenue contribution analysis of what contributed to that 2 facets, and now i'll tie it back to what they observed on October 4 as their mid-single-digit boom price model.

We spoke of across their three segments, first, they now have an enhancing boom profile as they shift to better cost, higher growth markets over 70% of their company in application and in Consulting, which, by the way, also contains a more robust price routine profits flow, that these two segments will make a contribution all 5 elements of IBM's boom, by the way, with enhancing working margins, which i may get into at the conclusion. The infrastructure segment, which is high-cost, mission-essential overlaying their mainframe enterprise and infrastructure support enterprise, turned into projected to be flat over time because it follows innovation cycle. So, as they carry out innovation subsequent year, they firmly believe and confident that we'll develop there. but over a 3-year duration, it really is about flat however a major money generator.

So, you got two boom vectors, one value vector, two providing growth, one delivering money generation. Now let's look at how the third quarter performed out. against that 70-plus p.c of their two increase vectors that centered a 5-aspect contribution, they delivered 4.5 facets of revenue growth to IBM. They fell about 0.5 point short, and that's the reason in the software enviornment as a result of they overachieved in GBS.

we have a powerful e-book of company in GBS, now IBM Consulting, and they see that carrying on with to play out. They bought work to do on utility, but we're making underlying business efficiency because, as you all recognize, you see the data. Their deferred profits tailwind dissipates over time. And they misplaced about 1 factor of increase in software just due to the deferred income tailwind, which ability that the underlying business of their seasoned forma IBM application continues to increase.

Why do they consider confident moving ahead? just including to one of the most facets of Arvind, no 1, they now have been five quarters in a row now with amazing renewal quotes. eighty% of their utility business is routine income, high-cost recurring revenue. and also you see that in their deferred salary and deferred salary steadiness up $800 million yr over yr. number two, they see fine acceleration in ARR.

And incidentally, NRR north of 100% once again for the third consecutive quarter. And we're starting to see nice acceleration in Cloud Paks. And most significantly, as they mentioned three quarters ago, they are now starting to enter the early ingredients of their ELA cycle. which will continue into 2022 and the first half of 2023.

So, they consider relatively assured in regards to the two growth vectors. the place they neglected is, in accordance with being on the returned end of a very a success mainframe cycle, the infrastructure segment took 2.5 facets of boom far from IBM ex-Kyndryl. So plus 4.5 features against the target of 5%, they misplaced 2.5 features in infrastructure. And with the intention to average out over time as they deliver new innovation.

after which at last, simply wrapping up, for your operating margin remark, they referred to getting into this 12 months, two most crucial measures, earnings boom, free money movement technology. We're achieving on each of those. They mentioned that free cash stream era was going to be important as a result of they needed to gasoline funding in innovation and in IBM Consulting because they saw mighty demand. We're playing that out consciously.

we will see that increase as they get into 2022, but we're nonetheless driving that money. and that i'll wrap up, year up to now through third quarter, turning out to be salary, becoming income ex-Kyndryl at consistent foreign money. We're transforming into gross and pre-tax greenbacks. We're growing to be pre-tax margin, and we're starting to be trailing one year free cash movement.

So it truly is the mannequin that they put in location, and they believe pretty confident as they enter 2022.

Patricia Murphy -- vice president of Investor members of the family

thanks, Toni. Victor, may they please take the subsequent question?

Operator

Our subsequent query comes from Katy Huberty with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

Katy Huberty -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

yes, thanks. Arvind, you referenced the positives in Kyndryl and hardware within the quarter, however application performance changed into additionally mild of expectations. So, can you focus on what drove the shortfall in Cloud and Cognitive software and where you see alternatives for more advantageous execution within that application enterprise?

Arvind Krishna -- Chairman and Chief government Officer

yes. Thanks, Katy. yes, actually, as -- in reality, even Jim mentioned that they fell maybe 0.5 aspect wanting their personal expectations, and they might have finished superior. here is where I see it doing more advantageous.

First, the one which performed precisely in line with what they wanted become purple Hat. pink Hat gave us 17%, which is fairly lots what they wanted and expected. If I now study their Transaction Processing Platform, it turned into a bit bit beneath what they want as a result of they now have been saying that, in a long-time period model, that may still be more mid-single-digit decliner. however this quarter, it become a excessive single-digit decliner.

We suppose that as they get past as a result of that is coupled, i would not name it similar, nevertheless it is coupled to probably the most infrastructure cycles, I expect that to come back starting in early '22 or probably late in '21. Then on their category that is nowadays referred to as AI purposes, they have been minus 1%. There, i would are expecting us to get again to mid-single-digit increase. Now you kind of say, if I put all of it together, will they expect to see a tiny bit -- I call it a tiny little bit of pausing from individuals as a result of every thing occurring? sure.

Two, we're turning their incentive models. I spoke on it on the prior query very in brief. Their incentive fashions for their earnings teams are going to be very closely tuned toward utility going forward in '22. That, I agree with, will effect in more suitable -- a lot stronger efficiency since the handiest method that they will get anywhere close the target incentives is to make their utility number.

it's probably for the first time that it really is been real in a long, long term at IBM. So, Katy, it is sort of my view on what took place there and how they will increase going forward.

Patricia Murphy -- vp of Investor relations

Thanks, Katy. Let's go to the subsequent query, please. 

Operator

Our subsequent query comes from Tien-Tsin Huang with J.P. Morgan. Your line is open.

Tien-Tsin Huang -- J.P. Morgan -- Analyst

hi there, thanks. it's good to speak to you all. i wished to ask on the GBS facet. so that did accelerate double-digit earnings boom.

feels like fourth quarter, you are expecting that, too, however did come at an improved can charge. So, i'm just curious on the gross margin percentage front. So, i'm curious, probably the most confidence so that you can reprice to offset the bigger cost of start, is there risk that those prices might persist right here given the entire demand facet that you're seeing? thank you.

Jim Kavanaugh -- Senior vice president and Chief monetary Officer

Yeah. Tien-Tsin, here's Jim. i could take that as they circulate ahead. As I pointed out earlier and Arvind commented in the prepared remarks, they do see a extremely potent demand atmosphere accessible.

As they had been going via fourth quarter, they referred to as a extremely conscious strategy. GBS, now IBM Consulting, once again, plays a really vital position to their hybrid cloud platform-centric business model. Why? because it drives scale and adoption to their platform, and it also pulls IBM technology whereas taking expertise of the ecosystem and partnership and ability and ability. So, they begun aggressively adding ability, ability, potential, ecosystem partnerships, and scaling acquisitions.

I feel they simply announced nowadays their eighth GBS acquisition in the last twelve months common. So, it was a mindful approach. And they consider that that flywheel effect of GBS that turns into the multiplier of riding their platform, pulling their utility, and driving a really mighty financial equation for their ecosystem partners is elementary in their long-time period approach. Now with that spoke of, they noticed margins down 310 groundwork points.

We saw pre-tax margins down 110 basis aspects. inside that, notwithstanding, they grew gross profit greenbacks, and they grew pre-tax greenbacks. We're about producing growth in precise line and round producing money contribution. And GBS delivered that today.

i'd additionally point out that GBS accelerated their margins quarter to quarter totally. Pretax margins have been up 5 elements quarter to quarter, and that they've been accelerating their gross margins sequentially every single quarter this year. So, they delivered over 13 aspects of pre-tax margin within the third quarter; and their mannequin, as they spoke of on October four, was low teens. So, they suppose relatively comfy.

We see a great booklet of company, and they proceed to look, in fourth quarter, IBM Consulting offering double-digit revenue boom and margin dollar and income dollar and cash dollar contribution while pulling their software and hybrid cloud platform.

Patricia Murphy -- vice president of Investor members of the family

Thanks, Tien-Tsin. Let's go to the subsequent query, please.

Operator

Our subsequent query comes from Jim Suva with Citigroup. Your line is open.

Jim Suva -- Citigroup -- Analyst

thank you very tons. My question, when you consider that a lot of them have been answered, there is just one of them, and that's the have an effect on of bigger labor charges. No be counted the place you seem to be, labor fees are going higher. and that i do see that to your organized slides that you simply did provide that your signings were up 3%.

So, may still they consider about, as time rolls ahead, you're going to put into effect extra labor expenses that increase and go higher? Or are they in fact fabric sufficient so they should still be modeling some changes into your money flows? Or how should they sort of suppose about that as you're employed in the course of the company since it's an exquisite dynamic and fluid condition with labor costs? thanks.

Arvind Krishna -- Chairman and Chief govt Officer

So, Jim, great query. And incidentally, i would let you know that I don't suppose that this 12 months is enjoyable. possibly there may be a dash extra issues happening, but I do not believe it's enjoyable. I bear in mind 2001 truly neatly.

I remember 2007 simply before the monetary disaster. here is a continual movie within the technology business. Now you pointed out the 3% signings increase. i wouldn't seem to be at the 3%.

i'd analyze their publication-to-bill ratio, which is 1.1. And so, e-book-to-bill offers a much better sign of what the demand is for their ahead-searching salary and demand in their IBM Consulting company. Now, appear, labor has to be managed. they have a worldwide labor mannequin.

We put individuals everywhere. And as Jim simply outlined in answers to the prior question that, yes, in case you do have inflation to your labor charge, there is a part of it it is going to price through for that facet of the company. In all of the rest of the business, truly, i am no longer so concerned about labor charge. i am concerned about getting the right ability possibly, but that is all the time a be troubled that I even have, and i've been paranoid about that for 30 years.

that is not interesting. and i think it's corresponding to a lot of your agencies, Jim, like not just yours but all of your colleagues here on this call. The right talent is far more vital, and their labor charge is essential. within the conclusion of the day, it's maybe 15%, 20% of the total charge and price it truly is form of critical toward the different companies since you can manipulate the rest.

So, web reply to you is, no, or not it's not whatever that must be modeled in. I do not consider so. however they always need to worry about it when it comes to how can they price, how do they get the labor swimming pools, where can they put the labor pools, and all of these elements.

Patricia Murphy -- vice chairman of Investor relations

unbelievable. thanks, Jim. Let's go to the next query, please.

Operator

Our next question comes from Keith Bachman, bank of Montreal. Your line is open.

Keith Bachman -- BMO Capital Markets -- Analyst

hello. Many thanks for taking the query. i wished to ask first on Cloud Paks that you appear to be suggesting that this is going to be a key or probably the most many enablers to force boom. and i become hoping you may explain a little bit why Cloud Paks because it sounds very similar to bundling, which IBM and many organizations were doing for years.

So, want to try to bear in mind a little bit why Cloud Pak is different from the ancient bundling that IBM has been doing. and then 2d, if I might just ask, Jim, a query I've requested earlier than is on application maintenance. a very good quarter on convenient compares and i just wanted to get your techniques on the durability of the software upkeep, not even if it's vital. however is it, in reality, a growth category as they appear out inside GBS over the next two years, three years? Many thanks.

Arvind Krishna -- Chairman and Chief govt Officer

ok. So, Keith, i'll take the primary part of that question on Cloud Paks. So, Cloud Paks don't seem to be just bundled. they're not simply containerizing application.

i may inform you right away, if all you do is bundled software, you're going to in fact get a cost deflation. If all you do is containerized application, there might be no plus or minus. or not it's just a unique means of supplying it. So i may take probably the most Cloud Paks and perhaps use it as a quick example.

If I take their Cloud Pak for information, if I now flip round and tell you that no matter if they take some of their integration application or even if they take a database software like Db2, and that's all you provide via that, you're right, that is neither plus nor minus. I feel it is going to stay the place it is. although, or not it's now not simply inserting these in as alternate options. lots of the Cloud Pak for records is really new innovation.

It contains strategies around facts textile. It contains methods around how do you federate statistics each from public clouds and from different repositories that are doubtless now not IBMs interior the customer's on-premise ambiance. It contains the records catalog. It incorporates these tips on how to be in a position to do some competition devoid of even moving the statistics.

That new content material introduced to one of the current content, so they take abilities of their incumbency, but they get elevate as a result of there is greater utilization overall for these applied sciences than there changed into before, is why we're so excited about Cloud Paks and the place it offers us both. yes, some of it is barely going to be a circulate, but lots of it's really increased usage. And confidently, that variety of made the example clear on how we're riding innovation into the portfolio with that one example. So Jim, i could supply it to you to handle the -- I do not know whether to carry preservation in ARR or NRR.

Jim Kavanaugh -- Senior vice president and Chief economic Officer

I think, Keith -- and that i'm deciphering your question given you utilized it to GBS, and we've had this dialogue many quarters correctly so, and also you're speakme about utility administration features, AMS. If i am no longer answering the correct question, please get back to Patricia, and they can flow forward from there. but AMS, as we've talked about for a handful of quarters, they received again to growth, up 5%, accelerated that boom, albeit, as they observed in the prepared remarks, off a a good deal less complicated examine right through the peak of the pandemic remaining 12 months in third quarter. nevertheless it turned into up this quarter as they had growth in offerings, which modernize the client's purposes and as they flow them to a hybrid cloud.

We pointed out their application management having an important incumbency value in a hybrid cloud platform-centric model. Why? as a result of what now they have viewed and realized over the ultimate two-plus years after the acquisition of pink Hat is that, one, they have now constructed up a $3.5 billion book of business around their red Hat follow in GBS from a lifeless start all the way through the acquisition. And they built that up. Of that $3.5 billion, over three-quarters of that ebook of business is in AMS bills.

2nd, AMS -- excuse me, GBS riding that flywheel effect I referred to previous is in fact -- promises over one-third of their cloud revenue -- Cloud Pak revenue boom each and every quarter, and within that, 80% are AMS money owed. So, there is a causality and a correlation here between their mighty incumbency base, us having trade company method capabilities and the technical expertise to be the client's relied on companion. To movement them along their event to cloud, AMS is a really integral part. So, they noticed first rate boom.

And by the way, their penetration of AMS cloud exercise, remember, they spoke of in the past this predominantly being an on-prem enterprise application awareness situation. They continue to make progress. We're -- about near 40% of their AMS enterprise is now cloud, and we're capitalizing on red Hat. We're catalyzing on software modernization.

And we're capitalizing on very potent ecosystem partnerships with SAP S/4HANA, to name one, as they circulation ahead.

Patricia Murphy -- vice president of Investor family members

Very first rate. thanks, Keith. Victor, let's take one last question.

Operator

certainly, their ultimate question comes from David Grossman with Stifel. Your line is open.

David Grossman -- Stifel economic Corp. -- Analyst

thank you, and thanks for squeezing me in here. just two definitely brief ones. First, how a lot, if any, of the profits with Kyndryl is undertaking-primarily based, which could be dependent on their personal execution? after which secondly, Jim, you outlined the ELA cycle starting off, I suppose, early 2022. in all probability you may share with us just how tons of a headwind or not it's been and which segments it's impacted most.

Thanks.

Jim Kavanaugh -- Senior vice chairman and Chief financial Officer

David, thanks very much for the query. I consider i could take both, and then Arvind can wrap it up right here usual. First, around Kyndryl. So, in case you go back to October 4, at the Investor Day, which they had been relatively clear, and they observed they will proceed that transparency into 2022 across the external income with the strong strategic relationship between IBM and Kyndryl, they talked about about, on a full-12 months groundwork, $2.5 billion, supply or take.

And in 2022, in case you received 365 days versus two months in 2021, it would be about $2 billion of incremental or about 3 elements. inside that, David, nearly all of it is in software. And a majority of it is annuitized-based excessive-price, mission-crucial-primarily based habitual income. So, when you are pondering will they have any deflationary influences around that $2-plus billion on the application facet, which contains nearly all of it, no.

The 2d element is we've about -- annualized about $0.5 billion regarding their infrastructure support and hardware. On the infrastructure guide, it's once more an annuitized-based mostly business typical. And on the course of hardware, in their strategic relationship, as they set Kyndryl up, they now have given them an attractive aggressive and part of aged stock refresh application, so they have very little hardware purchases over likely the next 18 months to two years given they just went via a large asset refresh. So long answer to your query, but I don't think they now have a lot of influence moving ahead against that.

second, across the ELA cycle, you be aware of this quite neatly. it be typically a 3-plus 12 months. The dynamics of client purchasing behaviors exchange over time, however they believe very confident. The first rate news is right here is they have lots of headroom.

We're just starting the early a part of that in fourth quarter. which will predominantly play out in 2022 after which will also lengthen early into 2023 as they move ahead. And if you study their transactional-connected pastime, now they have been making effective performance improvement in their annuitized-primarily based enterprise with the renewal quotes, and their on-prem transactional business has struggled, in particular all over the pandemic. this can bolster that as they circulation ahead.

And most importantly, they feel confident in the investments in innovation and what we're bringing to market with their modernized and containerized Cloud Pak choices optimized on properly of their hybrid cloud red Hat platform that we're decent. So, with that, let me turn it over to Arvind.

Arvind Krishna -- Chairman and Chief govt Officer

Thanks, Jim. seem to be, first, i would like to thank all of you for your questions. i believed they were definitely stepping into the details; and with a bit of luck, their answers helped you take into account their company lots stronger. Let me simply make a few feedback to wrap it up.

i'm hoping you took away is that they continue to make this progress this quarter in the key areas. both myself and Jim highlighted them in their key areas of increase and in their value vectors as they go ahead, exceptionally looking into '23. but they will also renowned that they all the time have more to do. Importantly, we're on the edge of the IBM of the future, and they predict to exit the year equipped that provides on their mid-term model starting in 2022.

it truly is the sustainable mid-single-digit profits boom and the expanding free cash movement that fuels the entire investments. So, with that, I appear ahead to speaking to all of you again.

Patricia Murphy -- vp of Investor family members

Arvind, thanks. Victor, let me turn it lower back to you to close out the call.

Operator

[Operator signoff]

length: sixty seven minutes

call members:

Patricia Murphy -- vp of Investor members of the family

Arvind Krishna -- Chairman and Chief govt Officer

Jim Kavanaugh -- Senior vice president and Chief fiscal Officer

Wamsi Mohan -- bank of the usa Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

Toni Sacconaghi -- AB Bernstein -- Analyst

Katy Huberty -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

Tien-Tsin Huang -- J.P. Morgan -- Analyst

Jim Suva -- Citigroup -- Analyst

Keith Bachman -- BMO Capital Markets -- Analyst

David Grossman -- Stifel monetary Corp. -- Analyst

greater IBM evaluation

All profits call transcripts

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